28 February 2014

Select Oscar Predictions 2014

With the 86th Annual Academy Awards just around the corner (Sunday March 2nd) it seems like an appropriate time to weigh in with my picks, and more crucially spotlight who I think will win big on the night. I’ve seen the majority of this year’s contenders (including all the Best Picture nominees), but there are a few oversights that I’ll confess a little later. It’s obviously important to stress that politics and the balloting system are key components when predicting winners, but I also think it’s crucial to label the most deserving films/people (at least MY most deserving) as it has become increasingly regular form to see the Academy blighted by a slavish commitment to convention and tradition. BOLD denotes who I think WILL win, ITALICS denote who I think SHOULD win. If you’re gambling on Oscar night, neither of these speculative approaches should be taken as gospel, although I suppose my chips are firmly planted on the BOLD side of things.

Best picture is of course a more complicated beast than other categories, as it works on a specific preferential balloting system. Be mindful of this when looking at my prediction - and check out this great video courtesy of THE WRAP if you need some educating. 



Enjoy – and feel free to play along in the comments section below.


BEST PICTURE
American Hustle - Wins on the night
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska - Should win on the night
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity - Should and will win on the night
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club - Should and will win on the night

BEST ACTRESS (note - I haven't seen August: Osage County)
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine - Should and will win on the night
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips - Wins on the night
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club - Should win on the night 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle - Wins on the night
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska - Should win on the night 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer, American Hustle - Wins on the night
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
(This category represents one where my "favourite" pick is split. I cannot decide if I liked the writing in "Nebraska" or "Her" better. If either won I'd be elated. Both are very worthy)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
Billy Ray, Captain Philips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena - Wins on the night
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave 
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street - Should win on the night 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest
 & Celestine
Frozen - Should and will win on the night
The Wind Rises

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM 
(I will abstain from voting here, as I have simply seen too few of the nominees. "The Hunt" is the favourite and the only work I've viewed, so I guess it can have my support)
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty 
(Italy)
The Hunt 
(Denmark)
The Missing Picture 
(Cambodia)
Omar 
(Palestine)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Alone Not Alone," Alone Yet Not Alone
"Happy," Despicable Me 2
"Let It Go," Frozen
"The Moon Song," Her - Should win on the night 
"Ordinary Love," Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom - Wins on the night
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
(It is deliciously ironic that "American Hustle", probably the most over-praised feature of this awards season, should fail to get a nomination in the one category it deserves to win. Touche Academy)
Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathew, Dallas Buyers Club - Should and Will win on the night
Stephen Prouty, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny, The Lone Ranger
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
John Williams, The Book Thief
Steven Price, Gravity - Should and Will Win on the night
William Butler and Owen Pallett, Her
Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Thomas Newman, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Judy Becker (Production Design) and Heather Loeffler (Set Decoration), American Hustle
Andy Nicholson (Production Design); Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard (Set Decoration), Gravity
Catherine Martin (Production Design) and Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration), The Great Gatsby - Should and Will Win on the night
K.K. Barrett (Production Design) and Gene Serdena (Set Decoration), Her
Adam Stockhausen (Production Design) and Alice Baker (Set Decoration), 12 Years a Slave
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity - Wins on the night
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis - Should Win on the night 
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska
Roger A. Deakins, Prisoners

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
William Chang Suk Ping, The Grandmaster
Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby - Should and Will win on the night
Michael O'Connor, The Invisible Woman
Patricia Norris, 12 Years a Slave
BEST FILM EDITING
Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten, American Hustle
Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips
John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa, Dallas Buyers Club
Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger, Gravity - Should and Will win on the night
Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave

As you may have noticed I have absconded from including documentary in my predictions, not out of ignorance, but down to my own lack of expertise and familiarity with the current crop. 
Enjoy the broadcast and best of luck if you're a gambler on the night. 
An article by Daniel Kelly, 2014

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